Despite a red wave that swept Florida in the last election, Democrats in the state are pinning their hopes on two citizen initiatives that they believe could turn things around in 2024. The initiatives, dealing with abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization, are seen by party leaders as a way to fuel turnout and boost the chances of Democrats.
According to former State Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, an Orlando Democrat who was swept out of office last year amid Florida’s red wave and is now running for the state Senate, the initiatives “will have a transformative impact on the election.” When Democrats gathered in Miami Beach this month to raise money and strategize about 2024, they were buzzing about the prospect of what such high-profile citizens initiatives could mean. Republicans, they said, could suddenly find themselves at a disadvantage.
“It’s a perfect storm,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who included in that storm the backlash against Gov. Ron DeSantis as well as 2024 being a presidential election year where turnout is routinely higher than in midterms.
The hope is also that the abortion and marijuana initiatives will provide an incentive for infrequent voters to turn at the polls. Florida Democrats are promoting the abortion rights initiative — as well one dealing with clean water — on the party’s website. Democratic volunteers and paid canvassers will help gather signatures for the pot and abortion amendments when they go out into the field. The party does not plan to help fund either initiative.
However, there’s no guarantee right now that either the abortion rights or recreational marijuana initiative will make the 2024 ballot. The pot amendment, funded almost entirely by the marijuana giant Trulieve, has already gotten over 1 million signatures, more than enough to qualify. But Florida’s conservative-leaning Supreme Court still needs to approve the initiative and state Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody has asked the high court to reject the measure.
Organizers for the abortion rights initiative, which would create a constitutional amendment banning restrictions on abortion before about 24 weeks, say they have gathered more than 400,000 signatures and are on pace to reach one million in the next couple of months. If approved, it would block Florida’s current ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy and this year’s six-week ban, which remains in limbo until the state Supreme Court decides on a legal challenge to the bans.
While some are skeptical that the initiatives will change the fortunes of the party, Democratic Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber believes that “Once you reach the bottom, the only way is up.” State Rep. Anna Eskamani, an Orlando Democrat who once worked for Planned Parenthood, is convinced the abortion rights amendment will energize young voters who are disappointed with President Joe Biden and frustrated over gun violence and the inability to cancel student loans.
However, Dan Smith, chair of the University of Florida political science department, is doubtful that the pot legalization amendment and the abortion rights measure will make a substantial difference in the 2024 race. He said measures like these affect races on the “margins” and are more likely to spur turnout in midterm races, not presidential elections.
Regardless of the outcome, the initiatives represent a clear effort by Florida Democrats to energize their base and try to reverse the recent trend of Republican dominance in the state. While the voter registration gap between the two parties keeps growing, the hope is that these initiatives could provide the necessary boost to turn things around in 2024.